“Michael” will moonwalk to the top of box office charts.
Lionsgate’s film about the King of Pop, Michael Jackson, is aiming for $65 million to $70 million from 3,900 North American theaters in its opening weekend. Some exhibitors are predicting the final number will be closer to $80 million as advance ticket sales, particularly in premium large formats like Imax, continue to rise. Even the lower end of projections would rank as the largest debut ever for a musical biopic, ahead of 2018’s “Bohemian Rhapsody” ($51 million) and 2015’s “Straight Outta Compton” ($60 million).
At the international box office, where Universal is handling the rollout, “Michael” is expected to be even bigger. It’s projected to earn $75 million to $80 million from 82 markets. Globally, the film should end up with a stellar $140 million to $150 million (or more) by Sunday.
In other words, “Michael” is primed to be a massive crowd-pleaser despite the poor reviews and costly behind-the-scenes turmoil. That’s promising because “Michael” is also one of the most expensive music biopics of all time. The film originally cost $155 million, in part because of expensive music rights and extensive recreations of famous concert performances. Then the singer’s estate had to pay tens of millions for additional photography after learning the third act of the film was unusable. The story had dealt with a 1993 lawsuit that accused Michael Jackson of child sexual abuse, which he denied. After the movie was shot, producers discovered a clause in the settlement with the young accuser that barred the depiction or mention of him in film or television.
Director Antoine Fuqua (“Training Day”) retooled the movie so the dramatic tension is about the singer’s relationship with his domineering father, Joe Jackson, who doesn’t want his son’s solo career to come at the expense of the Jackson 5, the Motown group that put the family on the map. Michael Jackson is portrayed by his real-life nephew Jaafar Jackson, while his parents, Joe and Katherine Jackson, are played by Colman Domingo and Nia Long. These changes caused the studio to delay the movie’s release by a year.
Hollywood is looking at “Bohemian Rhapsody” as a point of box office comparison. The Queen origin story, which also heavily leaned on thrilling concert sequences to electrify audiences, stands as the biggest music biopic of all time with $910 million worldwide. Internally, Lionsgate hopes “Michael” will gross at least $700 million worldwide. Should the film reach those box office heights, Lionsgate is planning to make at least one more film about Jackson’s life. The studios suggest roughly 30% of the material that was jettisoned from “Michael” could be reconstituted for potential sequels.
As this weekend’s only major release, “Michael” will easily tower over North American charts. Reigning champ “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” is poised for second place after three weekends in the No. 1 spot. Universal’s animated sequel about the beloved Nintendo characters has become another box office smash with $356 million domestically and $752 million globally to date.
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After a better-than-expected April, the box office is ahead 16% from the same point in 2025, according to Comscore. Momentum should continue in May as Disney’s fashion-forward follow-up “The Devil Wears Prada 2” kicks off the month, followed by the Warner Bros. action sequel “Mortal Kombat 2” and the “Star Wars” spinoff “The Mandalorian and Grogu.”
From Variety US