In the opening number of “Wicked: For Good,” Glinda sings the celebratory song “Thank Goodness” to quell the anxieties of the citizens of Oz. Cinema owners will be humming a similar tune over the weekend as the second half of the Broadway smash arrives on the big screen.
“Wicked: For Good” is flying to $150 million to $180 million from 4,000 North American theaters in its first weekend of release, a heroic start after a dismal fall at the box office. A debut on the higher end of that range would rank as the year’s biggest launch over April’s “A Minecraft Movie” ($162 million) and May’s “Lilo & Stitch” remake ($146 million). The big-budget musical is primed to shatter the debut of 2024’s “Wicked,” which set a record for stage-to-screen adaptations with $112.5 million over the same pre-Thanksgiving frame.
Universal, the studio behind “Wicked,” is offering an estimate of $125 million or more for the second installment. It’s a slightly more conservative figure because projections for the first film were lofty — with some exhibitors suggesting above $130 million — before ticket sales floated to a still-spectacular $112.5 million. Box office prognosticators are bullish, however, because “Wicked” is a known entity this time around and “For Good” is billed as the must-see conclusion to Elphaba and Glinda’s epic journey down the Yellow Brick Road.
“Wicked: For Good” will loom over the domestic box office charts as two other newcomers, Sony’s bloody action thriller “Sisu: Road to Revenge” and Searchlight’s dramedy “Rental Family” try to serve as counter-programming against the pink-and-green musical. “Sisu 2” is aiming for $3 million from 2,100 venues. Those ticket sales are similar to 2022’s “Sisu,” which ignited to $3.3 million before tapping out with $7 million domestically and $14 million globally. “Rental Family,” starring Brendan Fraser as a struggling actor who lands the not-so-plum job of playing stand-in roles for strangers in Japan, is also targeting a debut in the low single digits from 1,900 North American locations.
Directed by Jon M. Chu, “Wicked: For Good” chronicles the second act of the stage show as the Wizard (Jeff Goldblum) and Madame Morrible (Michelle Yeoh) attempt to turn all of Oz against Elphaba (Cynthia Erivo) and brand her as the Wicked Witch of the West. Meanwhile, the green witch’s perky BFF (Ariana Grande) embraces her public persona as Glinda the Good. “For Good” will certainly electrify the box office, but a question is whether this entry will enjoy the same kind of staying power as the original. “Wicked” became the biggest Broadway adaptation ever with $756 million globally. Like the initial installment, positive word-of-mouth and the catchy soundtrack are likely to drive repeat business through the rest of the year. However, the second half of “Wicked” is much darker and doesn’t have as many memorable songs as than the musical’s fizzy first act. Universal produced the two-part extravaganza for $300 million, not including the outsized marketing budgets.
“Wicked: For Good” and Disney’s animated comedy “Zootopia 2,” which opens on Nov. 26, look to end November on a high note. It’s shaping up to be a huge Thanksgiving for movie theaters as these blockbusters attempt to break the record set over last Turkey Day with $433 million across all films, led by “Wicked: Part 1,” “Moana 2” and “Gladiator II.”
“This is great news after a rather dismal month of October,” says Comscore’s head of marketplace trends Paul Dergarabedian.
Love Film & TV?
Get your daily dose of everything happening in music, film and TV in Australia and abroad.
From Variety US