Guess audiences couldn’t smell what the Rock was cooking.
Dwayne Johnson’s R-rated sports drama “The Smashing Machine” was knocked out at the box office with $6 million, a tragic start and career-worst debut for the A-list star. Those initial ticket sales are also a huge blow to A24, which spent $50 million to produce (and plenty more to market) the film and stands to lose tens of millions on the box-office bust.
Were moviegoers confused about what the Rock was cooking? “The Smashing Machine” features a rare dramatic performance from Johnson, who became a household name through action films and family friendly franchises such as “The Mummy,” “Fast and Furious” and “Moana.” In “The Smashing Machine,” he plays wrestler and UFC champion Mark Kerr as he makes a career comeback after battling substance abuse. It’s a grittier and more emotional role for the WWE fighter-turned-actor, one that’s far removed from the likes of Luke Hobbs, the Scorpion King or the demigod Maui. Though critics were mostly receptive (a 73% on Rotten Tomatoes), audiences dismissed “The Smashing Machine” with a tepid “B-” grade on CinemaScore exit polls.
Here are six reasons why “The Smashing Machine” flopped in its box office debut.
Audience identity crisis
Who was “The Smashing Machine” for? That’s the lingering question after a dismal opening weekend. A24, a beloved indie film company, positioned “The Smashing Machine” as an arthouse drama with awards appeal. Hence the Venice Film Festival premiere and lots of talk about the Rock’s major on-screen transformation. (That’s a classic Oscars narrative.) Yet that approach wasn’t reflected in the initial audience for “The Smashing Machine,” which appealed mostly to younger men. Nearly 70% of crowds were male and 64% were between the ages of 18 to 36, according to PostTrak data. In other words, it’s the target demographic for traditional Johnson tentpole. Meanwhile only 8% were above 55 years old, a key subset for arthouse releases. Those who were incentivized to buy a ticket were seemingly disappointed in the action (or lack thereof) on screen, which is reflected in the weak audience scores.
No reason to cost the studio $50 million
Johnson commands a big payday to star in films — and that usually makes sense given much of his box office track record. But this wasn’t a standard vehicle for the Rock, so he should have been willing to adjust his paycheck accordingly. That’s not to discourage an actor from trying something new or playing against type, but any bold cinematic bets become a whole lot riskier with a $50 million price tag. Given the money on the line, A24 decided to open the film in over 3,000 theaters nationwide rather than build buzz with a traditional platform release. Since studios and theater owners split ticket sales 50-50, “The Smashing Machine” requires above $100 million to breakeven. That’s not a problem for most of Johnson’s filmography, but it’s a benchmark that only three A24 movies have ever achieved. And international audiences might not come the rescue.
“Sports dramas do not travel well overseas,” says David A. Gross, who runs the FranchiseRe movie consulting firm. “Each country has its own sports myths and dreams. American wrestling is a local phenomenon, and that will limit it abroad.”
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Stand up and jeer
In early September, “The Smashing Machine” was tracking a debut of $17 million, a decent figure in no small part because of Johnson’s broad appeal. Heading into opening weekend, however, projections dropped to $15 million with some anticipating a start as low as $8 million. Even that was too lofty. On Saturday, estimates were lowered again to $6.5 million and revised again on Sunday to $6 million. Rival studios think the three-day figure will be softer (closer to $5.5 million) by the time the number is finalized on Monday.
What’s behind the drastic drop in expectations? A big factor is probably an obvious one: Poor word-of-mouth. Attendance started to stall once audiences started to see and talk about the film. Now “The Smashing Machine” is projected to reach $15 million domestically by the end of its theatrical run. Ouch.
Lost in translation
When “The Smashing Machine” premiered at Venice, the film was embraced with a lengthy standing ovation and hailed as a Oscar contender. (Shoutout to the resilient souls who stood and cheered for 15 consecutive minutes.) Benny Safdie, best known for collaborating with his older brother Josh on films like “Uncut Gems” and “Good Time,” took home the festival’s prize for best director. But “The Smashing Machine” learned the hard way that festival buzz doesn’t always translate to box office dollars. It’s unclear now if the disastrous commercial turnout will hurt the movie’s awards chances, but some films are just better enjoyed on the Lido.
Can-miss cinema
Theater owners can’t stress it enough: Audiences need to feel a sense of urgency. Movies that break out at the box office tend to become part of the cultural conversation. When that happens, people feel compelled to see a film in its opening weekend — or face some serious FOMO. It’s what fueled the “Barbenheimer” craze and more recently propelled “Sinners” and “Weapons “to sleeper-hit status. In this case, marketing for “The Smashing Machine” didn’t successfully create a “why now” moment.
Taylor Fever?
Taylor Swift was this weekend’s big box office champion as “The Official Release Party of a Showgirl” was No. 1 with $33 million. That mighty figure is even more impressive considering the pop star’s cinematic event wasn’t announced until two weeks ago. It’s true that “Showgirl” took some of the bookings for premium large format screens that A24 was expecting for “The Smashing Machine.” But analysts believe that figure was nominal if anything.
“There’s not a significant audience crossover between Taylor Swift’s fanbase and a male-driven sports drama,” says Shawn Robbins, director of movie analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory. “Maybe a small degree of premium-large-format screens weren’t available, but I don’t think it’s related to ‘The Smashing Machine’s’ underperformance.”
As “Reputation”-era Swift would say, “Don’t blame me.”
From Variety US