Golden Globes Final Predictions: ‘Sinners,’ ‘One Battle After Another’ and Brazil Aim to Make History

As comedian Nikki Glaser prepares to take the stage for the 83rd Golden Globes, the usual late-breaking anxiety has set in. With voting having closed Jan. 3, the industry’s final temperature check is underway, and the winners forecast reflects a Globes lineup that balances prestige and populism — with just enough unpredictability to keep pundits hedging their bets.

In best motion picture (drama), Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet” looks difficult to beat. There’s a theoretical late-surge scenario in which Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” muscles past it, but with the vampire drama positioned to dominate the cinematic and box office achievement category (and original score for Ludwig Göransson), the Globes may opt to spread the wealth.

That thinking extends to actress (drama), where “Hamnet”’s Jessie Buckley appears ready to convert critical admiration into a televised victory. A Globes win would formally kick off her march toward Oscar night, assuming she can hold off Renate Reinsve of “Sentimental Value.”

The comedy or musical race is comparatively straightforward. Warner Bros.’ “One Battle After Another” is widely expected to take home the top prize, with Paul Thomas Anderson poised to add a director win to the film’s tally. The Globes have historically been friendlier to auteurist studio plays in this category, and “One Battle” fits that mold neatly. Should it ultimately prevail at both the Globes and the Oscars, it would join a rare club of comedy or musical champions — including “Green Book,” “The Artist” and “Shakespeare in Love” — that went on to claim the best picture Oscar.

The acting races offer a mix of expected outcomes and potential surprises. In comedy or musical, Ethan Hawke’s work as Lorenz Hart in Richard Linklater’s “Blue Moon” has been underestimated in some corners, and the film’s surprise best picture nomination suggests deeper support than assumed. Hawke could plausibly leapfrog over Timothée Chalamet of “Marty Supreme” and Leonardo DiCaprio of “One Battle After Another.”

In actress (comedy or musical), Rose Byrne is the safest bet for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” likely edging out Cynthia Erivo’s turn in “Wicked: For Good” and Chase Infiniti’s breakout in “One Battle After Another.”

Erivo’s co-star Ariana Grande, meanwhile, appears to have a real possibility to collect her first major awards-season prize with a supporting actress win for “Wicked: For Good,” if Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”) doesn’t upset. Stellan Skarsgård is likely to triumph in the supporting actor field for “Sentimental Value.”

The lead actor (drama) race promises to make history, with Wagner Moura favored to win for “The Secret Agent” slightly pushing past Michael B. Jordan from “Sinners.” Moura, the first Brazilian man nominated in the category, looks to be following the path of Fernanda Torres, who earned a Globe for “I’m Still Here” last year.

Elsewhere, “It Was Just an Accident” is favored in non-English language film (but conversations with voters hint at another win coming through for “The Secret Agent”), while Netflix’s “KPop Demon Hunters” rounds out the film categories with projected wins in animated feature and original song for the chart-topping “Golden.”

There is potential to make history in the screenplay category, depending on which direction voters go. Paul Thomas Anderson could complete a rare hat trick to accompany projected directing and best picture wins for “One Battle After Another.” Only one writer-director-producer has ever pulled off that feat at the Golden Globes: Oliver Stone for the war drama “Born on the Fourth of July” (1989). Notably, the film went on to lose best picture.

There is also a credible scenario in which two non-English language films — “It Was Just an Accident” and “Sentimental Value” — emerge with victories. Still, there appears to be sufficient support among voters to push Ryan Coogler across the finish line for “Sinners,” which would make him the first Black winner of the screenplay category at the Globes. He would become just the fifth Black nominee overall, following Charles Fuller (“A Soldier’s Story,” 1984), Spike Lee (“Do the Right Thing,” 1989), John Ridley (“12 Years a Slave,” 2013) and Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight,” 2016, and “If Beale Street Could Talk,” 2018).

And if Chloé Zhao were to triumph alongside her co-writer, Maggie O’Farrell, for “Hamnet,” she would become the first East Asian winner in the category.

The real question is whether the Globes will validate the consensus — or remind everyone that surprises remain part of their enduring brand.

The final Golden Globes winner predictions are below.

Film

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Will Win: “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Could Win: “Sinners” and “Sentimental Value”

Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

Will Win: “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Could Win: “Marty Supreme” and “Bugonia”

Best Actor (Drama)

Will Win: Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Could Win: Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”) and Oscar Isaac (“Frankenstein”)

Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)

Will Win: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Could Win: Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”) and Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”)

Best Actress (Drama)

Will Win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Could Win: Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”) and Jennifer Lawrence (“Die My Love”)

Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)

Will Win: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Could Win: Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked: For Good”) and Chase Infiniti (“One Battle After Another”)

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Could Win: Benicio Del Toro (“One Battle After Another”) and Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”)

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Could Win: Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) and Emily Blunt (“The Smashing Machine”)

Best Director

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Could Win: Jafar Panahi and Ryan Coogler

Best Screenplay

Will Win: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
Could Win: “It Was Just an Accident” and “Sentimental Value”

Best Original Score

Will Win: Ludwig Göransson, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Could Win: “One Battle After Another” and “Sirāt”

Best Original Song

Will Win: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, Ido, 24 and Teddy
Could Win: “I Lied to You” from “Sinners” and “The Girl in the Bubble” from “Wicked: For Good”

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
Could Win: “Zootopia 2” and “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”

Best Non-English Language

Will Win: “The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Brazil
Could Win: “It Was Just an Accident” and “Sentimental Value”

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Will Win: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Could Win: “KPop Demon Hunters” and “F1”

Television

Best TV Series (Drama)

Will Win: “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Could Win: “Severance” and “Pluribus”

Best TV Series (Musical or Comedy)

Will Win: “The Studio” (Apple TV)
Could Win: “Hacks” and “Nobody Wants This”

Best Limited Series

Will Win: “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Could Win: “Black Mirror” and “All Her Fault”

Best Actor in a TV Series (Drama)

Will Win: Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Could Win: Adam Scott and Diego Luna

Best Actor in a TV Series (Musical or Comedy)

Will Win: Seth Rogen, “The Studio” (Apple TV)
Could Win: Glen Powell and Adam Brody

Best Actor in a TV Series (Limited)

Will Win: Stephen Graham, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Could Win: Charlie Hunnam and Matthew Rhys

Best Actress in a TV Series (Drama)

Will Win: Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Could Win: Kathy Bates and Britt Lower

Best Actress in a TV Series (Musical or Comedy)

Will Win: Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Could Win: Kristen Bell and Jenna Ortega

Best Actress in a TV Series (Limited)

Will Win: Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
Could Win: Michelle Williams and Claire Danes

Best Supporting Actor on Television

Will Win: Owen Cooper, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Could Win: Tramell Tillman and Walton Goggins

Best Supporting Actress on Television

Will Win: Erin Doherty, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Could Win: Hannah Einbinder and Carrie Coon

Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television

Will Win: Ricky Gervais, “Ricky Gervais: Mortality” (Netflix)
Could Win: Brett Goldstein and Sarah Silverman

Best Podcast

Will Win: “Good Hang with Amy Poehler” (Spotify)
Could Win: “Call Her Daddy” and “SmartLess”

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