Grammy Nominations Predictions: Kendrick Lamar, Lady Gaga, Sabrina Carpenter Will Contend in Top Categories

Last year at this time, fans were excited that the 2025 Grammys looked to be a real horse race, with super-divas Beyoncé, Billie Eilish, Taylor Swift and Chappell Roan all destined to compete in the top categories. But what a difference a year makes: After such a blockbuster-packed slate, it’s not surprising that the 2026 Grammys will not have that kind of competitive heat.

But although the months between September 2024 and August 2025 may have been light on the kind of superstar releases that seem preordained for Grammy sweeps, plenty of other contenders have emerged — and in such circumstances, obvious choices are in short supply.

If it’s a clear and present front-runner you want, there’s really only one: Kendrick Lamar. That would be a more exciting development if he hadn’t dominated the 2025 Grammys just seven months ago, with five wins, including song and record of the year, for his smash “Not Like Us.” If he does it again on Feb. 1, 2026, any headlines along those lines will have a serious tinge of déjà vu. And it’s certainly possible: His most recent release cycle, which includes several singles and his “GNX” album (including the likely top song of the year, the SZA duet “Luther”), straddles two eligibility periods. Grammy voters might be tempted to spread the love and give top awards to somebody else this time, just to mix it up — except he’s so far ahead, it’s hard to assess who the nearest dark horse might be.

Grammy followers do love redemption stories, so even though it might be considered a bit of a yawn for Lamar to dominate across categories yet again, there is still one “he’s overdue” narrative in play. He has never won album of the year, despite having had four of his previous albums nominated (and he picked up two additional album of the year nominations besides, one as a featured star of the “Black Panther” soundtrack, the other as guest on a Beyoncé record). In any case, a Lamar triumph will still come as good news to most Grammy veterans — they arguably have a lot of catching up to do on hip-hop, and a Lamar sweep would help put some more drops in that bucket.

Apart from Lamar, Sabrina Carpenter slipped in a strong album right under the Aug. 30 eligibility wire, “Man’s Best Friend,” to join her “Manchild” single in putting some heat into the top races, right on the heels of having been a major contender in last February’s contest.

Otherwise, pop’s greatest Grammy-hoarding luminaries were mostly off-cycle. Swift and Bey released nothing during the eligibility period. Eilish returns to the competition in a more limited way this year because she is eligible for “Wildflower,” a late-breaking single from her previously eligible album. Roan released two non-album singles (or at least non-album-for-now), “The Giver” and “The Subway”; either one could’ve been a contender, but it’s the latter being submitted in top categories to avoid vote-splitting.

But there are some strong contenders from superstar artists who haven’t always been Academy pets in recent years. Lady Gaga is foremost among them, with the extremely well-reviewed “Mayhem” likely to go places that “Chromatica” (which was released at the height of the pandemic) did not. Could similarly strong kudos for her U.S. tour push her to a surprise victory in a top division this time? That’s a vindication story that would really make millions of viewers monstrously happy.

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As for some of the other possible nominations, it will be fascinating to see what kind of love Justin Bieber’s low-key “Swag” era gets from voters; whether Latin music is allowed back into the big house with major noms, after seeming underrepresented last year; and whether the year’s most formidable freshman, Alex Warren, can pick up some Grammy gold to go along with his multiplatinum single, “Ordinary.”

Once again, Variety is forecasting the likely nominees in the Grammys’ top four all-genre categories. Barring any ties, there will be eight artists or tracks nominated in each of these four divisions (versus five for all the down-ballot categories). In each case, we more than doubled our possible luck by supplementing the eight picks with an additional 10 possibilities, to cover a wide range of outcomes. Keep in mind that the Grammys are the least predictable of all the major entertainment awards, with usually at least one or two picks in each major category that completely blindside everyone bold enough to make predictions. Set your calendars for when the nominations are announced on Nov. 7 to see how we fared.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Eight leading contenders, listed alphabetically:

   Ten more that could get in:

This award is very much Lamar’s to lose: All of his previous major albums have been nominated, without a win; “GNX” was universally seen as highly enjoyable and a step forward again, after 2022’s dense and polarizing “Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers”; and there is nothing obviously in line to beat him. That said, the Carpenter and Gaga albums both enjoyed near-unanimous critical acclaim as well as huge populist profiles. The problem is, will they cancel each other out, attracting the same poptimist voters?

Most everything else is possible for a nom but not so much a win. Batiste and Coldplay get into this category every time. Bad Bunny is hard to figure, since he got passed over on his last album, after getting into the category the time before. Carlile has been a recent Grammy mainstay, and it’s hard to imagine a well-reviewed partnership with Elton dragging her down, even if it wasn’t a commercial smash. However, Bieber is a bigger question mark, with his detour from either pop or hip-hop into a vibe-ier sound possibly broadening his bona fides. Laufey is the boldest of our album picks here; the recording community adores her and, having graduated to sold-out arenas, she seems overdue for a big, wet kiss outside the traditional pop vocal category (plus, she’s likely to score votes from the still-significant senior Grammy voters).

And for those not keeping score at home, the oft-snubbed Morgan Wallen’s camp already announced he is not submitting music from his latest blockbuster, “I’m the Problem,” which was the year’s biggest album, although the formerly estranged Weeknd and Drake are back in the Grammy fold.

RECORD AND SONG OF THE YEAR

 Eight leading contenders, listed alphabetically:

  Ten more that could get in:

We’re going to dispense with the formality of offering separate picks for song of the year (honoring songwriters) and record of the year (recognizing producers), since they mostly overlap, even though you can count on a few interesting distinctions in the voting. “Luther” feels like a runaway favorite, between it being Lamar’s year (again), and the strength-in-numbers of having SZA a part of it. But it wouldn’t be crazy if Eilish captured one as a make-good for missing out with the even huger “Birds of a Feather” last time (not to negate the 1.5 billion Spotify streams “Wildflower” has racked up on its own).

The real wild cards here are Warren’s “Ordinary” and the “KPop Demon Hunters” standout track “Golden” — the two real “songs of the summer” in a year that many people said didn’t have one. Neither one exactly feels like Grammy bait, per se. If in the past voters could shut out “Blinding Lights” or “The Shape of You” from nominations, it is entirely possible they will consider these two singles not cool enough for a top spot. Or will there be factions that give the people what they want?

A few of the artists will have made hard decisions about which songs to submit. It’s understood that Roan is submitting the broad-appeal “The Subway” over the country pastiche “The Giver,” as the safer bet. On a similar note, Gaga going with “Abracadabra” already has a magic command embedded in the title.

BEST NEW ARTIST

Eight leading contenders, listed alphabetically:

 Ten more that could get in: 

With Lamar not eligible for new artist (duh), at last we have one of the four top all-genre categories where there is nothing even remotely close to a front-runner… which isn’t to say that our predictions for the nominees don’t amount to something like an all-bets-are-off eight-way tie.

Speaking of ties, Langley and Moroney are tied for the most nominations at the upcoming CMA Awards, which speaks to how strongly the Nashville community thinks of them (and probably a lot of voters who only dabble in listening to the genre). Country almost never gets a nomination here … can Music Row finally land two in one swoop, or three if another newly appointed headliner, Zach Top, could also squeeze in? But if you want an act that appears across genre bases without any vote-split ruining the fun, the Marias may just ever-so-slightly advance to the position of leading candidate — with Warren, clearly the biggest breakout of the year in strictly commercial terms, looming as a potential behemoth spoiler.